Barack Obama Star Rising, Especially Against Conservatives in Head to Head Race…

A closer look inside the numbers reveals that Barack Obama is quite legitimate when put head to head versus any Republican candidate in a national election.

This must have the Clinton camp at least mildly concerned as her almost daily recurrences of foot-in-mouth syndrome, coupled with her enormous unpopularity among male voters, could spell disaster for her campaign as the race grinds forward into 2008.

Obama has the personality, charm, as most importantly…cash, to go the distance. But more important than all of that is the one crucial question. Can he beat the Republicans, no matter who they throw at him. As of now, the answer appears to be yes.

Here is some recent poll data:

Head to Head 2007 Summary	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Barack Obama	43.7	44.3	44.4	45.0
Rudy Giuliani	42.7	44.0	42.0	42.0
Margin	1.0	0.3	2.4	3.0

Head to Head 2007 Summary	Sep	Oct	Nov
Barack Obama	48.5	45.3	49.0
Mitt Romney	38.5	35.7	37.7
Margin	10.0	9.7	11.3

Head to Head 2007 Summary	Aug	Sep	Nov
Barack Obama	48.0	47.0	49.0
Mike Huckabee	39.0	38.0	38.0
Margin	9.0	9.0	11.0

Head to Head 2007 Summary	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Barack Obama	44.5	43.0	43.7	46.0
John McCain	39.5	39.5	41.3	43.0
Margin	5.0	3.5	2.3	3.0

Head to Head 2007 Summary	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Barack Obama	45.7	47.6	46.2	52.0
Fred Thompson	38.3	39.0	38.0	39.0
Margin	7.3	8.6	8.2	13.0

And what does Hillary have to say?

Hillary Rodham Clinton maintained Sunday that she’s the best candidate to win against Republicans, saying she has more experience battling the GOP than any other candidate in the Democratic field.

“I believe that I have a very good argument that I know more about beating Republicans than anybody else running. They’ve been after me for 15 years, and much to their dismay, I’m still standing,” she said in answer to a woman’s question about her electability. “I’m leading in all the polls, I’m beating them in state after state after state.”

“I think they have looked at the field and figured out who can best beat the Republicans,” Clinton said.

Barack Obama’s campaign weighed in, claiming he is the strongest candidate in the field.

“Throughout his career, Senator Obama has succeeded in bringing Democrats, Republicans and independents together to solve important problems like providing health care to families,” Obama spokesman Tommy Vietor said.

A recent Washington Post-ABC News poll showed Obama had 30 percent support among likely Iowa Democratic caucus-goers and Clinton had 26 percent. 

When asked about Obama’s lead in Iowa, Clinton, in typical Clinton style, completely reversed an earlier statement saying that she doesn’t pay much attention to polls, and acknowledged that it’s a competitive race.

“There have been a lot of polls, and frankly, I don’t pay much attention to any of them,” she said. Later, she acknowledged, “It is a much more competitive race (in Iowa) than it is in other parts of the country.”

When you’re looking in from the outside, it’s right there for anyone to see.

Obama may be a bit irregular and unpolished at times, but he is consistent. He’s candid, comes off as honest and tells you what is on his mind. (i.e. Yeah I inhaled, that was the point.)

If nothing else, Obama could move us over the hurdle of a White House that has been monopolized by recent Presidents who could lead but weren’t very good at controlling their collateral behavior, and others who simply couldn’t lead at all.

Ask five voters about Barack Obama, and you’re likely to get five different opinions: America’s not ready for a black president; America can’t afford not to have a black president; Barack Obama isn’t really black; Obama is fresh and honest, etc., etc. But no one can deny that he inspires comparisons, favorable or not, to John Kennedy, and has had significant primary fundraising success against the Hillary campaign finance machine. (When you have Oprah in your camp how can you lose?)

Obama is the only electable candidate running his campaign on universal health care, getting out of Iraq (the only electable candidate who didn’t want to get in), and as his bestselling book put it, embracing the “audacity of hope.” 

I have commented on the Shadow Democracy Radio Show and this blog in the past, and I will maintain, that Barack Obama is for real and if Hillary Clinton sits on her national poll numbers, she may very well find herself in second place come next Spring.